Epidemic Growth Factor: One Month's Warning

Daily growth factor g
1.25
Country A
N₀ = 60
Country B
N₀ = 6,000
N(t) = N₀ × g^t
Both curves same slope on log scale
g = 1.00 → epidemic neither grows nor shrinks (flat lines)
Days until A reaches B's start
20.6 d
Doubling time
3.1 d
A at day 90
B at day 90
Same g → same trajectory, just offset in time. Country A (60 cases) is not "safe" — it is Country B one month ago.
At g = 1.25: doubling every ~3 days. One month = ≈ 10 doublings = 1000× more cases.